Market specifications

AAPL — Apple

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Apple Inc. (AAPL).

Underlying: Apple Inc. common stock, ticker AAPL.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one AAPL share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

AMZN — Amazon

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN).

Underlying: Amazon.com, Inc. common stock, ticker AMZN.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one AMZN share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

ASML — ASML Holding

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML).

Underlying: ASML Holding N.V. shares, ticker ASML.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one ASML share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

CPER — United States Copper Index Fund

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER), an exchange-traded fund that follows copper futures prices.

Underlying: The United States Copper Index Fund (CPER), an exchange-traded fund that tracks copper futures prices.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one CPER share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

CRWV — CoreWeave

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV).

Underlying: CoreWeave, Inc. common stock, ticker CRWV.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one CRWV share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

CXMT — ChangXin Memory Technologies

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of ChangXin Memory Technologies, listed on the Shanghai STAR Market, quoted in US dollars.

Underlying: ChangXin Memory Technologies, Inc. shares, listed on the Shanghai STAR Market.

Price reference: The Hyperliquid xyz perpetual for CXMT, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

DRAM — Roundhill Memory ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), an actively managed fund investing in global semiconductor memory companies.

Underlying: The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), an actively managed exchange-traded fund investing in global semiconductor memory companies.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one DRAM share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

GOLD — Gold spot

Perpetual future tracking the spot price of gold in US dollars per troy ounce (XAU/USD).

Underlying: Spot gold, quoted as the XAU/USD exchange rate — the US dollar price of one troy ounce of gold.

Price reference: The market tracks the prevailing spot gold price (XAU/USD), quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

GOOGL — Alphabet (Google)

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Google's parent company.

Underlying: Alphabet Inc. (Google's parent company) common stock, ticker GOOGL.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one GOOGL share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

H100 — SemiAnalysis H100 Selected Spot Rental Price Index

Perpetual future tracking the rental price of NVIDIA H100 GPUs, as measured by the SemiAnalysis H100 Selected Spot Rental Price Index.

Underlying: The SemiAnalysis H100 Selected Spot Rental Price Index, which measures spot rental prices for NVIDIA H100 GPUs — a benchmark for the cost of AI compute.

Price reference: The market tracks the published index value from SemiAnalysis, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference index value.

IEF — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), a fund holding intermediate-term US Treasury bonds.

Underlying: The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), an exchange-traded fund that tracks intermediate-term US Treasury bonds (maturities of 7 to 10 years).

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one IEF share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

INTC — Intel

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Intel Corporation (INTC).

Underlying: Intel Corporation common stock, ticker INTC.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one INTC share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

META — Meta (Facebook)

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), the company behind Facebook.

Underlying: Meta Platforms, Inc. (Facebook) common stock, ticker META.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one META share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

MINIMAX — MiniMax Group

Perpetual future tracking the price of one Hong Kong-listed share of MiniMax Group Inc. (0100.HK), quoted in US dollars.

Underlying: MiniMax Group Inc. shares (0100.HK), listed in Hong Kong.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer equity feed 3257, converted from Hong Kong dollars to US dollars using Pyth Lazer FX feed 1510.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

MSFT — Microsoft

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT).

Underlying: Microsoft Corporation common stock, ticker MSFT.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one MSFT share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

MU — Micron Technology

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Micron Technology, Inc. (MU).

Underlying: Micron Technology, Inc. common stock, ticker MU.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one MU share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

NVDA — NVIDIA

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).

Underlying: NVIDIA Corporation common stock, ticker NVDA.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one NVDA share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

SILVER — Silver spot

Perpetual future tracking the spot price of silver in US dollars per troy ounce (XAG/USD).

Underlying: Spot silver, quoted as the XAG/USD exchange rate — the US dollar price of one troy ounce of silver.

Price reference: The market tracks the prevailing spot silver price (XAG/USD), quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

SKHY — SK hynix Inc. ADR

Perpetual future tracking the price of one US-listed share (American Depositary Share) of SK hynix Inc. (SKHY), traded on Nasdaq.

Underlying: SK hynix Inc. American Depositary Shares (ADSs), ticker SKHY — the US-listed shares representing the underlying stock — listed on Nasdaq.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one SKHY ADS on Nasdaq, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

SMH — VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

Underlying: The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), an exchange-traded fund.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one SMH share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

SNDK — Sandisk Corporation

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Sandisk Corporation (SNDK).

Underlying: Sandisk Corporation common stock, ticker SNDK.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one SNDK share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

SPCX — Space Exploration Technologies

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of SpaceX — Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX).

Underlying: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) Class A Common Stock, ticker SPCX.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one SPCX Class A share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

SPY — SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), a fund designed to follow the S&P 500 index of large US companies.

Underlying: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), an exchange-traded fund designed to track the S&P 500 Index — a benchmark of roughly 500 of the largest US-listed companies.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one SPY share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

TLT — iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), a fund holding long-term US Treasury bonds.

Underlying: The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), an exchange-traded fund that tracks long-term US Treasury bonds (maturities of 20 years or more).

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one TLT share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

TRUMPAPP — Trump approval rating

Perpetual future tracking Donald Trump's approval rating, quoted in percentage points — for example, a price of 45 means 45% approval.

Underlying: The approval rating of Donald Trump.

Price reference: The market tracks the prevailing approval rating, quoted as a percentage (e.g. a contract price of 45 corresponds to a 45% approval rating).

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference value.

TSLA — Tesla Inc

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).

Underlying: Tesla, Inc. common stock, ticker TSLA.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one TSLA share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor

Perpetual future tracking the price of one US-listed share (American Depositary Receipt) of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM).

Underlying: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), ticker TSM — the US-listed shares representing the underlying company's stock.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one TSM ADR, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

URA — Global X Uranium ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the Global X Uranium ETF (URA), a fund holding uranium mining and nuclear component companies.

Underlying: The Global X Uranium ETF (URA), an exchange-traded fund that tracks companies involved in uranium mining and the production of nuclear components.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one URA share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

US10YR — US Treasury yield 10 years index

Perpetual future tracking the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, quoted in percent — for example, a price of 4.11 means a 4.11% yield.

Underlying: The 10-Year US Treasury Yield — the market interest rate on US government bonds maturing in 10 years, a key benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy.

Price reference: The market tracks the prevailing 10-year Treasury yield, quoted as a percentage (e.g. a contract price of 4.11 corresponds to a yield of 4.11%).

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference yield.

USO — United States Oil Fund

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the United States Oil Fund (USO), an exchange-traded fund that follows crude oil prices.

Underlying: The United States Oil Fund (USO), an exchange-traded fund designed to track the price of crude oil via crude oil futures.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one USO share, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

VIX — CBOE Volatility Index

Perpetual future tracking the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of how much turbulence the market expects in US stocks over the next 30 days.

Underlying: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the stock market's expectation of volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, derived from S&P 500 option prices.

Price reference: The market tracks the published VIX index level, quoted in index points.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference level.

VXX — iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX). VXX holds short-term VIX futures, so it behaves differently from the VIX index itself.

Underlying: The iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), an exchange-traded note that provides exposure to short-term VIX futures rather than the spot VIX Index. Because it rolls futures contracts, its behavior can diverge significantly from the spot VIX.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one VXX note, quoted in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying note price.

ZAI — Zhipu AI

Perpetual future tracking the price of one Hong Kong-listed share of Z.AI (Zhipu) Co., Ltd. (2513.HK), quoted in US dollars.

Underlying: Z.AI Co., Ltd. (also known as Zhipu) shares (2513.HK), listed in Hong Kong.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer equity feed 3258, converted from Hong Kong dollars to US dollars using Pyth Lazer FX feed 1510.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

ANTHROPIC — Anthropic IPO market cap

Futures contract on Anthropic's market capitalization after IPO — or its last public valuation if no listing happens before 2028 — in billions of US dollars.

Underlying entity: Anthropic.

This contract settles to Anthropic's market capitalization after its IPO, or — if no listing event occurs before 2028 — to its last public valuation, denominated in billions of US dollars.

Full settlement rules, listing-event definitions, valuation sources, and edge cases are defined in the AI Valuation Futures master specification, which governs this market.

ARC26 — Highest ARC-AGI-2 score in 2026

Futures contract on the highest score any AI model achieves on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark — a test of general AI reasoning ability — during 2026. Settles at year-end to that top score, expressed as a decimal between $0 and $1 (for example, a 65% score settles at $0.65).

Underlying. ARC-AGI-2 (Arc AGI 2) is a benchmark of general AI reasoning capabilities. This contract tracks the highest ARC-AGI-2 benchmark score achieved by any AI model in 2026.

Settlement. Contracts settle to the highest ARC-AGI-2 benchmark score achieved by any AI model in 2026, evaluated at year-end, expressed as a decimal in a $0 to $1 range. A score of X% settles at $X/100 — e.g. a top score of 65% settles at $0.65.

Contract style. Numeric future quoted as a percentage (decimal between 0 and 1), settled against the final year-end value.

CPI26 — US inflation rate, Dec 2026

Futures contract on US inflation: the annual CPI inflation rate for December 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Settles to the reported year-over-year inflation rate.

Underlying. The US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), All Items, Not Seasonally Adjusted — the headline measure of US consumer price inflation.

Settlement. Contracts settle to the CPI-U (All Items, Not Seasonally Adjusted) 12-month percent change for December 2026 — that is, the annual inflation rate from December 2025 to December 2026.

Resolution source. The value as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Contract style. Numeric future quoted as a percentage, settled against the reported December 2026 annual inflation rate.

DEEPSEEK — DeepSeek IPO market cap

Futures contract on DeepSeek's market capitalization after IPO — or its last public valuation if no listing happens before 2028 — in billions of US dollars.

Underlying entity: DeepSeek.

This contract settles to DeepSeek's market capitalization after its IPO, or — if no listing event occurs before 2028 — to its last public valuation, denominated in billions of US dollars.

Full settlement rules, listing-event definitions, valuation sources, and edge cases are defined in the AI Valuation Futures master specification, which governs this market.

ECI26 — Highest AI capability score in 2026

Futures contract on how capable AI models get in 2026, measured by the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) — a composite AI capability score published by Epoch AI. Settles at year-end to the highest ECI score achieved by any model during 2026.

Underlying. The Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) is a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI. This contract tracks the highest ECI score achieved by any AI model in 2026.

Settlement. Contracts settle to the highest ECI score achieved by any AI model in 2026, evaluated at year-end. Outcomes are any value above 100.

Contract style. Numeric future quoted as the ECI score itself, settled against the final year-end value.

FMATH26 — Highest FrontierMath score in 2026

Futures contract on the highest score any AI model achieves on the FrontierMath benchmark — a test of advanced AI mathematical reasoning — during 2026. Settles to that top score, expressed as a decimal between $0 and $1 (for example, a 40% score settles at $0.40).

Underlying. FrontierMath is a benchmark of AI mathematical reasoning created by Frontier AI. This contract tracks the highest FrontierMath benchmark score achieved by any AI model in 2026.

Settlement. Contracts settle to the highest FrontierMath benchmark score achieved by any AI model in 2026, expressed as a decimal in a $0 to $1 range. A score of X% settles at $X/100 — e.g. a top score of 40% settles at $0.40.

Contract style. Numeric future quoted as a percentage (decimal between 0 and 1), settled against the final value for 2026.

LABREV — OpenAI + Anthropic 2027 revenue

Futures contract on the combined 2027 revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic, in billions of US dollars. Settles to actual recognized revenue for the calendar year, based on financial statements, official company figures, or credible reporting.

Underlying. LABREV settles to the combined total revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic for calendar year 2027 (January 1, 2027 through December 31, 2027), expressed in billions of USD.

Definition of revenue. "Revenue" means full-year recognized revenue of the consolidated entity owning each company's principal AI business (currently OpenAI Group PBC and Anthropic PBC), explicitly excluding bookings, billings, contracted value, deferred revenue, annualized run-rate ("ARR") figures, forecasts, and targets. Run-rate figures are used only in the estimation fallback (tier 4) below.

Source precedence. For each company the operator determines a figure from the best available public information at settlement, in this order of precedence:

1. Audited financial statements or securities filings (e.g., S-1, F-1, 10-K, annual report) stating full-year 2027 revenue; 2. An official company statement of full-year 2027 revenue; 3. A full-year 2027 revenue figure reported by The Information, Reuters, Bloomberg, the Financial Times, or The Wall Street Journal, attributed to company documents or people with direct knowledge — where credible figures conflict, MNX determines the settlement figure by weighing source directness, recency, and genuine corrections; 4. If no full-year figure is available for a company, the operator estimates its calendar-2027 revenue as the time-weighted average of that company's credibly reported annualized run-rate across 2027, interpolating linearly between reported points (sources as in tier 3, plus the company itself), with January 1 and December 31 endpoint values estimated by MNX from the nearest adjacent reports.

Adjustments. Non-calendar fiscal-year figures are calendar-adjusted by operator best estimate. If a company is acquired, merged, or restructured, its figure follows the best available measure of revenue attributable to its AI business, at MNX discretion.

Settlement value. Settlement value = OpenAI figure + Anthropic figure, rounded to the nearest tick, and clamped to the market's price bounds (terminal partial settlement at a bound if exceeded).

Timing. Settlement is expected on the first exchange business day on or after July 1, 2028, or earlier at MNX discretion once tier-1 or tier-2 figures are available for both companies. Settlement reflects information public at settlement time; later restatements do not reopen a completed settlement.

Discretion. MNX may apply reasonable discretion to unforeseen circumstances consistent with the market's intent: measuring the combined true calendar-2027 revenue of the two labs.

LFPR27 — US labor force participation, Dec 2027

Futures contract on the US labor force participation rate — the share of the adult population working or looking for work — for December 2027, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A published 61.4 percent settles at 61.4.

Underlying. Contracts settle to the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate, seasonally adjusted, as first published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for the reference month of December 2027, expressed in percentage points (for example, a published 61.4 percent settles at 61.4).

Primary source. BLS Current Population Survey series LNS11300000, as published in the monthly Employment Situation news release and mirrored as FRED series CIVPART; if the two differ, the BLS-published figure controls.

First print counts. Settlement uses the value first published for the December 2027 reference month (normally in the January 2028 Employment Situation release); later revisions are disregarded, except that a BLS correction of a publication error, published before settlement, supersedes the erroneous figure.

Fallbacks. If BLS does not publish a December 2027 value (for example, due to a lapse in appropriations), settlement uses the most recent earlier 2027 reference month first published before settlement; if the December 2027 value has not been published by April 30, 2028, settlement proceeds at that time on that basis. If BLS discontinues, renames, or materially redefines the series, MNX expects to settle on the successor headline participation rate designated by BLS, or the closest equivalent public measure at MNX discretion.

Settlement mechanics. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest tick and clamped to the market's price bounds (terminal partial settlement at a bound if exceeded). Settlement is expected within 10 business days of the qualifying release.

Amendments. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

MOONSHOT — Moonshot AI IPO market cap

Futures contract on Moonshot AI's market capitalization after IPO — or its last public valuation if no listing happens before 2028 — in billions of US dollars.

Underlying entity: Moonshot AI.

This contract settles to Moonshot AI's market capitalization after its IPO, or — if no listing event occurs before 2028 — to its last public valuation, denominated in billions of US dollars.

Full settlement rules, listing-event definitions, valuation sources, and edge cases are defined in the AI Valuation Futures master specification, which governs this market.

OPENAI — OpenAI IPO market cap

Futures contract on OpenAI's market capitalization after IPO — or its last public valuation if no listing happens before 2028 — in billions of US dollars.

Underlying entity: OpenAI.

This contract settles to OpenAI's market capitalization after its IPO, or — if no listing event occurs before 2028 — to its last public valuation, denominated in billions of US dollars.

Full settlement rules, listing-event definitions, valuation sources, and edge cases are defined in the AI Valuation Futures master specification, which governs this market.

SFHOME26 — San Francisco home price index 2026

Futures contract on San Francisco home prices, via the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller San Francisco Home Price Index. Settles at year-end to the last index value reported for 2026.

Underlying. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index, a measure of home prices in the San Francisco area.

Settlement. Contracts settle to the last reported S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller San Francisco Home Price Index value for 2026, evaluated at year-end.

Contract style. Numeric future quoted at the index level, settled against the last reported 2026 index value.

SFHOME27 — San Francisco home value, Dec 2027

Futures contract on the typical San Francisco home value in December 2027, per Zillow's Home Value Index, in thousands of US dollars. A published typical value of $1,450,000 settles at 1450.

Underlying. Contracts settle to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the City of San Francisco, California — all homes (single-family residences, condos, and co-ops), smoothed, seasonally adjusted — for the reference month of December 2027, expressed in thousands of US dollars (for example, a published typical home value of $1,450,000 settles at 1450).

Primary source. Zillow Research's published ZHVI data (zillow.com/research/data/ and Zillow's San Francisco home-values page).

First print counts. Settlement uses the value first published for the December 2027 reference month (normally released in January 2028). ZHVI's routine re-estimation of its full history in later releases is disregarded, except that a Zillow correction of a publication error, published before settlement, supersedes the erroneous figure.

Fallbacks. If Zillow has not published a December 2027 value by February 29, 2028, settlement uses the most recent earlier reference month first published before settlement. If Zillow discontinues, renames, or materially redefines the index, MNX expects to settle on the successor headline home-value measure for San Francisco designated by Zillow, or the closest equivalent public measure at MNX discretion.

Settlement mechanics. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest tick and clamped to the market's price bounds (terminal partial settlement at a bound if exceeded). Settlement is expected within 10 business days of the qualifying release.

Amendments. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

ANTHTOP26 — Anthropic produces top AI in 2026

Settles to $1 if Anthropic produces the top AI model of 2026 as ranked by the Epoch Capabilities Index (a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI), and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if Anthropic produces the top AI model in 2026, and $0 otherwise.

Resolution criterion. "Top AI model" is determined at 2026 year-end according to the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI), a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI: the market resolves YES if the highest-ECI-scoring model at year-end was produced by Anthropic.

Contract style. Binary future quoted between $0 and $1, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

CNTOP — China produces top AI before 2028

Settles to $1 if an AI model from a developer headquartered in China, released before 2028, ever ranks #1 on Epoch AI's capabilities leaderboard (ECI), and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if, at any time, a model produced by an AI developer headquartered in the People's Republic of China (including its special administrative regions) and publicly released before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET is displayed as the highest-scoring model on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard by general-ECI central estimate, and economically $0 otherwise. Holding the number-one rank at any moment suffices; it does not matter what is released or displayed afterward. For determinations made after the release deadline, the comparison is among models released before that deadline.

Score reference. General-ECI central estimates control (canonical score file: https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv); confidence bounds and domain-specific or custom indices do not count.

Measurement Cutoff. A qualifying measurement must first be published by April 30, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET (the Measurement Cutoff), unless MNX announces an extension under the amendment provision. MNX may settle YES or partially before the Measurement Cutoff, but will not settle NO before it; after the cutoff, MNX may apply the fallback or partial-settlement provisions.

Review of displays. A qualifying display counts when first shown and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological refit. MNX may disregard a display that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or a non-general index, and may settle YES early; early partial settlement remains available under the partial-settlement provision.

Fallbacks. If the ECI is discontinued or MNX determines it is no longer timely, reliable, or comparable, MNX may use a comparable successor ranking or another method in its sole discretion; a fallback determination that an eligible model from such a developer was the top model resolves YES. If no sufficiently reliable resolution method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available.

Amendments and finality. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; settlement is final once effected.

DPREZ — Democrat wins 2028 presidential election

Settles to $1 if a Democrat wins the 2028 US Presidential Election, and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if a Democrat wins the 2028 US Presidential Election, and $0 otherwise.

Event. The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

Resolution sources. The resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.

Fallback. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029), the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.

Contract style. Binary future quoted between $0 and $1, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

HORIZON — AI completes 16-hour tasks before 2028

Settles to $1 if the research group METR measures any AI model released before 2028 as able to complete tasks that take human experts 16 hours, at an 80% success rate, and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. METR (Model Evaluation & Threat Research) measures how long AI systems can work autonomously by the length of tasks they can complete, published as time-horizon estimates. Subject to the fallback, partial-settlement, review, and amendment provisions below, contracts settle to $1 if METR publishes an 80%-success-rate time-horizon estimate of 16 hours or more for any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET, and economically $0 otherwise. The qualifying event is the model's release before the deadline; the qualifying measurement may be published after the deadline in due course.

Metric definition. Time horizon means METR's 80% success-rate time horizon: the human-expert task duration at which the model is predicted to succeed at an 80% rate, as published in METR's canonical results (raw field `p80_horizon_length.estimate`, in minutes; the threshold is 960 minutes). Central estimates control, not confidence bounds.

Review of measurements. A qualifying published measurement for an eligible model counts when first published and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological revision. MNX may disregard an apparent crossing that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or a different metric, and may settle the market early after it determines the threshold was reached.

Fallbacks. If METR ceases publishing, materially changes methodology without a usable conversion, or does not measure an eligible model in due course, MNX may, in its sole discretion, use alternative sources or methods, including the published equivalence between time-horizon doublings and Epoch Capabilities Index points (approximately five ECI points per doubling; 16 hours corresponds to approximately ECI 173), or another method MNX considers appropriate. A fallback determination that the threshold was reached resolves YES.

Measurement Cutoff. A qualifying measurement must first be published by April 30, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET (the Measurement Cutoff), unless MNX announces an extension under the amendment provision. MNX may settle YES or partially before the Measurement Cutoff, but will not settle NO before it; after the cutoff, MNX may apply the fallback or partial-settlement provisions.

Partial settlement. If MNX determines that no sufficiently reliable resolution source or method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available, including exchange-oracle observations; any such input is an internal market-derived settlement convention, not independent evidence about the threshold.

Amendments and finality. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

INVADE — China invades Taiwan before 2028

Settles to $1 if China launches a military offensive intended to take control of any part of Taiwan before the end of 2027, and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and $0 otherwise.

Qualifying territory. Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify. Uninhabited islands will not qualify.

Resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Contract style. Binary future quoted between $0 and $1, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

LEAP — 9+ point AI capability jump before 2028

Settles to $1 if a single new AI model released before 2028 beats the previous record on Epoch AI's capabilities index (ECI) by 9 or more points in one jump, and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. The Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) is a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI. Subject to the fallback, partial-settlement, review, and amendment provisions below, contracts settle to $1 if any AI model publicly released after this market first opens for trading and before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET is first displayed on Epoch AI's general ECI leaderboard with a central estimate at least 9.0 points higher than the highest general-ECI central estimate then displayed for any earlier-released model, and economically $0 otherwise.

Score reference. Displayed central estimates at the time of that first display control (canonical score file: https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv); confidence bounds and domain-specific indices do not count. Models released, or scores first displayed, before this market first opens for trading form the launch baseline and cannot constitute a qualifying jump; MNX expects to record the opening leaderboard snapshot, with a content hash, at listing. Determinations use the canonical score file as of the determination time; if no early settlement has occurred, the snapshot archived at the Measurement Cutoff controls. The qualifying event is an eligible model's release within the eligibility window; its first score may be published after the release deadline in due course.

Review of jumps. A qualifying jump counts when first displayed and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological refit. MNX may disregard an apparent jump that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or a non-general index, and may settle the market early after it determines the threshold was reached.

Rescaling and fallbacks. If Epoch re-anchors or rescales the general ECI and publishes a conversion, MNX may convert the 9.0-point margin using that mapping (reference anchors: Claude 3.5 Sonnet = 130.0, GPT-5 = 150.0). If Epoch is discontinued or MNX determines the general ECI is no longer timely, reliable, or comparable, MNX may determine whether an eligible release exceeded the record by the converted margin using alternative sources or methods in its sole discretion. A fallback determination that the margin was met resolves YES.

Measurement Cutoff. A qualifying measurement must first be published by April 30, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET (the Measurement Cutoff), unless MNX announces an extension under the amendment provision. MNX may settle YES or partially before the Measurement Cutoff, but will not settle NO before it; after the cutoff, MNX may apply the fallback or partial-settlement provisions.

Partial settlement. If MNX determines that no sufficiently reliable resolution source or method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available, including exchange-oracle observations; any such input is an internal market-derived settlement convention, not independent evidence about the threshold.

Amendments and finality. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

MILLPROB — Millennium Prize Problem solved before 2028

Settles to $1 if one of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems in mathematics is solved before 2028 — by a human, an AI, or any combination — with the solution verified, and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. The Clay Mathematics Institute lists six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems as of August 2026: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, the Hodge Conjecture, Navier-Stokes Existence and Smoothness, P vs NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap. Subject to the review, amendment, and partial-settlement provisions below, contracts settle to $1 if a complete claimed resolution of one of these problems is made public before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET and is verified as provided below, and economically $0 otherwise. A resolution in either direction counts, including a disproof or counterexample; for problems other than P vs NP and Navier-Stokes, a counterexample counts only if it resolves the problem as officially stated rather than forcing a reformulation. The qualifying event is the public release of the claimed resolution before the deadline; verification may complete after the deadline in due course. Any solver qualifies: human, AI system, or any combination.

Verification. Either (a) the resolution is formally verified in a machine-checkable proof assistant, in a form sufficient to establish the official problem statement in full (e.g., Lean, Rocq/Coq, Isabelle), against a formalization that MNX judges, with reference to expert commentary, to faithfully capture the official problem statement, with the verification independently reproduced; or (b) the resolution has, in MNX's judgment, achieved clear acceptance among expert mathematicians, evidenced by multiple independent public affirmations of correctness from recognized specialists and the absence of credible unresolved objections at least 90 days after release. Recognition by the Clay Mathematics Institute is sufficient but not necessary.

Review and erroneous verification. A qualifying event counts when the verification condition is first met and is not undone by later shifts in attention; however, if before settlement the verification is discovered to have been erroneous (a formalization shown not to capture the official statement, a formal proof failing independent reproduction, or a retraction of the resolution or of the affirmations relied upon), the trigger is void and the market continues. MNX may settle early once it determines a qualifying event occurred.

Cutoffs. If no claimed resolution is made public before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET (the Release Cutoff), or no such claim satisfies the verification condition by June 30, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET (the Evidence Cutoff), the market settles economically $0 after the Evidence Cutoff. MNX may settle YES earlier once verification is met and may extend the Evidence Cutoff under the amendment provision.

Partial settlement. If no sufficiently reliable resolution method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available.

Amendments and finality. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; settlement is final once effected.

OAITOP26 — OpenAI produces top AI in 2026

Settles to $1 if OpenAI produces the top AI model of 2026 as ranked by the Epoch Capabilities Index (a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI), and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if OpenAI produces the top AI model in 2026, and $0 otherwise.

Resolution criterion. "Top AI model" is determined at 2026 year-end according to the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI), a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI: the market resolves YES if the highest-ECI-scoring model at year-end was produced by OpenAI.

Contract style. Binary future quoted between $0 and $1, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

RSENATE26 — Republicans keep Senate in 2026

Settles to $1 if the Republican Party wins control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, and $0 otherwise.

Settlement. Contracts settle to $1 if the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 midterm election, and $0 otherwise.

Definition of control. A party wins control if it wins a majority of the Senate’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority, the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency wins control. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying those criteria, control is assigned to the party of the first President Pro Tempore selected by the 120th Congress.

Included elections. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for those elections determine attribution of the relevant seat even if held after November. A vacant seat with no such November election is attributed to the party of the most recent senator to hold it.

Seat attribution. A contested seat is attributed to the party under which the senator was elected; a later party change or vacancy before Congress formally organizes does not change that attribution. A seat not contested in the election is attributed to the party holding it on Election Day; later changes do not alter that attribution. An independent is counted with a party if the senator caucuses with it, or a senator-elect announces an intent to do so. If that decision remains unknown on Election Day, the market may remain open until the earlier of an announcement or January 4, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Without an announcement by then, the senator is not counted for any party.

Resolution and timing. MNX will settle promptly once control is mathematically determined under these rules; settlement does not require waiting until Congress convenes. Outstanding runoffs or unresolved independent caucus decisions may delay settlement. Resolution sources are official information from relevant state election authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Amendments and partial settlement. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms. If no sufficiently reliable resolution method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available; any partial settlement is terminal for the settled portion. MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

Contract style: Binary future quoted between $0 and $1, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

SSITOP — SSI produces top AI before 2028

Settles to $1 if a model produced by Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI), released before 2028, ever ranks #1 on Epoch AI's capabilities leaderboard (ECI), and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if, at any time, a model produced by Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) and publicly released before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET is displayed as the highest-scoring model on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard by general-ECI central estimate, and economically $0 otherwise. Holding the number-one rank at any moment suffices; it does not matter what is released or displayed afterward. For determinations made after the release deadline, the comparison is among models released before that deadline.

Score reference. General-ECI central estimates control (canonical score file: https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv); confidence bounds and domain-specific or custom indices do not count.

Measurement Cutoff. A qualifying measurement must first be published by April 30, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET (the Measurement Cutoff), unless MNX announces an extension under the amendment provision. MNX may settle YES or partially before the Measurement Cutoff, but will not settle NO before it; after the cutoff, MNX may apply the fallback or partial-settlement provisions.

Review of displays. A qualifying display counts when first shown and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological refit. MNX may disregard a display that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or a non-general index, and may settle YES early; early partial settlement remains available under the partial-settlement provision.

Fallbacks. If the ECI is discontinued or MNX determines it is no longer timely, reliable, or comparable, MNX may use a comparable successor ranking or another method in its sole discretion; a fallback determination that an eligible SSI model was the top model resolves YES. If no sufficiently reliable resolution method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available.

Amendments and finality. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; settlement is final once effected.

TAKEOFF — ECI hits 200 before 2028

Settles to $1 if any AI model released before 2028 reaches a score of 200 on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI), a broad benchmark of AI capabilities, and $0 otherwise. For scale, GPT-5 scores 150 on the index.

Settlement condition. The Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) is a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI. Subject to the fallback, partial-settlement, review, and amendment provisions below, contracts settle to $1 if any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET receives an official general-ECI central estimate of 200.0 or higher, and economically $0 otherwise. The qualifying event is the model's release before the deadline; its qualifying score may be published after the deadline in due course.

Score reference. For primary resolution, "ECI" means Epoch AI's general ECI, and "score" means the central eci value in Epoch's canonical general score file, currently https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv, or a successor source designated by MNX. Confidence bounds, bootstrap draws, metadata files, and domain-specific or custom ECI values do not count unless MNX expressly designates otherwise. Where a rounded display and the canonical score file disagree, the score file controls.

Review of observations. An official qualifying observation for an eligible model counts when first published and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological refit. MNX may disregard an apparent crossing that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or was not a general-ECI central estimate. MNX may settle the market early after it determines that the threshold was reached.

Rescaling. If Epoch re-anchors or rescales the general ECI and publishes a conversion, MNX may convert the threshold using that mapping. Relevant reference anchors are Claude 3.5 Sonnet = 130.0 and GPT-5 = 150.0. MNX may treat a rescale with no usable conversion as discontinuation or apply another method it considers appropriate.

Fallbacks. If Epoch is discontinued or MNX determines that the general ECI is no longer timely, reliable, comparable, or available, MNX may, in its sole discretion, use, combine, skip, modify, or replace one or more alternative sources or methods based on the best information reasonably available. These may include reconstructing the ECI under an Epoch methodology, mapping another reputable capability index such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index to the ECI scale, or another method MNX considers appropriate. MNX determines trigger occurrence, source reliability, model eligibility, data inputs, model matching, fitting treatment, and fallback availability.

Unless MNX announces otherwise under an amendment, a fallback method is used to determine whether an eligible model reached the 200-equivalent threshold. A fallback determination that the threshold was reached resolves YES. If Epoch does not score an eligible model in due course, MNX may treat that delay as a fallback trigger and assess the model using fallback methods. MNX will not settle this market at $0 before the release deadline, and will not settle it at $0 afterward solely because a qualifying measurement is not yet available. MNX will make its final determination within 120 days after the release deadline unless it announces an extension under the amendment provision. An official qualifying Epoch observation continues to resolve YES after a fallback trigger.

Partial settlement. If MNX determines that no sufficiently reliable resolution source or method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available, before or after the release deadline. This may include one or more valid MNX exchange-oracle observations at or near a source-cessation time, the deadline, or another time selected by MNX. MNX may disregard or adjust observations it considers stale, anomalous, illiquid, or manipulated. Any exchange-oracle input is an internal market-derived settlement convention, not independent evidence that the ECI threshold was or was not reached.

Determinations, amendments, and finality. MNX determines from the public information reasonably available when a model was publicly released, whether a model was scored in due course, and whether a source or method is discontinued, unavailable, unreliable, or no longer comparable. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms. When practicable, MNX intends to publish material methodology, evidence, and amendments and permit review for objective errors before settlement. MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.