AI valuation futures — contract specification

The OPENAI and ANTHROPIC markets are futures on the market capitalization of OpenAI and Anthropic. One price point equals one billion U.S. dollars of company valuation: a price of 1300 means the market expects a $1.3 trillion valuation. This page is the full contract specification — what you are trading, how the price forms, and exactly how the market settles.

Contract summary

How the price forms before settlement

Before settlement, prices are set entirely by trading on MNX's internal order book; there is no external price feed. The oracle price used for margin checks, liquidation eligibility, and the tradable price band is an 8-hour exponential moving average (EMA) of the order-book mid price, falling back to the last trade when no two-sided quote is available. The mark price is the median of best bid, best ask, and last trade. Company announcements — funding rounds at a stated valuation, secondary sales, IPO filings — move these prices only insofar as traders trade on them.

Around major news (an IPO pricing, a large funding round), fair value can move further than the ±20% tradable band around the smoothed oracle. When that happens, trading continues but fills are pinned at the band edge while the oracle converges over the following hours. This is by design: the band is the market's manipulation protection and is never widened for events.

The oracle methodology is published here. Changes to it are announced at least 7 days in advance (bug fixes exempt).

Settlement at IPO

The market settles to the company's market capitalization at the close of its first day of public trading, in billions of USD, rounded to the nearest integer tick:

• Market capitalization = the official closing price on the primary listing exchange on the first trading day × total shares outstanding as stated in the final prospectus. Headline market caps from major data providers are used only as a tiebreaker.
• The operator computes this number from at least two independent public sources, and posts the calculation publicly before executing settlement.
• After settlement is posted, there is a 24-hour on-chain review window during which a wrong settlement can be aborted. Only after that window do positions close: every position is settled at the final price and margin plus realized profit-and-loss is returned to your balance automatically. No action is required from you.

A direct listing, or a listing via merger with a public shell company (SPAC), counts as an IPO, with “first day of public trading” defined the same way.

Fallback events

• Acquisition: if the company is acquired before listing, the market settles to the implied equity value of the acquisition (deal consideration for 100% of equity) when the deal closes.
• Dissolution or bankruptcy: the market settles at effectively zero.
• Corporate restructuring: the market follows the entity that holds substantially all of the AI business. A restructuring on the way to a listing is an IPO path, not a dissolution.
• No IPO by the end of 2027: If no IPO or equivalent event occurs by the end of 2027, the contract settles to the company's last public valuation.

How the last public valuation is calculated

The end-of-2027 fallback uses external information only. MNX's own order book is never used to calculate this settlement value:

1. The median implied market capitalization across available secondary-market data providers (for example, Caplight, Notice, and Forge) as of the settlement date, or as of the announcement date for an early wind-down.
2. If no provider covers the name: the most recent externally documented valuation event (a funding round's post-money valuation or a documented tender price). This is a coarser measure and is disclosed as such.
3. If nothing is documented: an operator-documented settlement price with the calculation posted publicly, subject to the same 24-hour review window.

MNX posts the calculation publicly before settlement. The standard 24-hour review window then applies before positions close.

Early wind-down (last resort)

Separately, the operator may wind down a market before the end of 2027 if it has withered or MNX is winding down. This requires 30 days' public notice and uses the same external sources above. For an early wind-down, the settlement value is fixed when the announcement is made, rather than at the end of the notice period.

Because the settlement value is fixed at announcement, trading during the 30-day notice window simply converges to that value; the window exists so holders can close positions and withdraw on their own schedule. MNX team members are barred from trading valuation markets around sunset decisions.

Worked example

1. You buy 10.0 OPENAI at 1300 (you believe OpenAI will list above a $1.3T valuation). Notional = 13,000 USDM; at 2x leverage you post 6,500 USDM margin.
2. The market trades up to 1450 on funding-round news. Your unrealized profit is 10 × (1450 − 1300) = 1,500 USDM.
3. OpenAI lists. The official day-one close implies a $1.55T market capitalization. The operator posts the calculation (1550) and executes settlement.
4. Trading halts immediately; the 24-hour review window passes.
5. Your position closes at 1550. You receive 6,500 (margin) + 10 × (1550 − 1300) = 2,500 profit = 9,000 USDM.